Agenda item

To consider a report by the Chief Executive Education Leeds which provides information on demographic trends, including births and new arrivals. The report also provides future projections of primary and secondary populations and changes in school provision

(Report attaced)

The Chief Executive Education Leeds submitted a report which provided information on demographic trends, including births and new arrivals. The report also provides future projections of primary and secondary populations and changes in school provision

In providing background information Mr G Turnbull, Head of Service, School Organisation, Education Leeds reported that over recent years there has been an increase in the birth rate, both nationally and locally.  This had been reflected in an increase in the number of pupils entering Reception, which had risen by about 800 in two years.  Whilst some surplus places still exist in primary and it was possible to continue to offer places to all children, the population increase was affecting the number of parents who were offered one of their preferences.

The increase in numbers had been more pronounced in areas inside the boundary of the ring road, but population growth was becoming a widespread phenomenon in Leeds as a whole.  Rather than a small number of ‘hotspots’, most parts of the city were  affected to a greater or lesser degree. It should be viewed as a city-wide issue

The secondary sector had seen a slight fall in Year 7 numbers since 2004.  Projections for 2009/10 had forecast a fall, but the admissions process was indicating a slight increase on last year.  Generally Year 7 numbers are expected to be steady or slightly fall until 2015, after which time the current increase in births will feed through to the secondary sector, leading to a sharp rise from 2016 onwards.

Mr Turnbull said that reports had been submitted to the Executive Board over the past six months outlining recommended actions to increase primary provision. These include proposing an increase in the published admission numbers of various schools for 2010/11, resulting in a potential increase of more than 300 primary places. Fuller proposals to permanently expand a number of schools from 2010 would follow. There will be a need to increase primary places for 2011 and again for 2012.

Expansion schemes would be managed through the Education capital programme, although a bid had been submitted to the DCSF for additional funding to support these in 2010 and 2011.

In passing comment Mrs Knights said that in the past some Primary Schools had been closed, now a few years later Primary places are required, Education Leeds need to take a longer term view.

In responding Mr Turnbull said that schools had been closed in the past because of the significant number of surplus places also the schools which did close were in a poor condition. Any new schools which had been built were a result of population change, schools need to be provided where the communities are.

Mr Forbes referred to a large school building programme currently being piloted in Birmingham “Total Place Initiative” . Mr Forbes suggested it may be worthwhile contacting the City’s involved to find out further information.

Mr Turnbull said that more creative use of schools is required, Education Leeds need to work with schools to identify local issues

RESOLVED – To note the content of the report including:

• continuing increases in birth rate;
• plans for expanded provision for 2009 and 2010;
• a large and sustained rise in primary projections for the foreseeable future, with a consequent need for continued expansion of provision; and
• steady or slightly decreasing secondary Year 7 enrolment for the next 2 or 3 years.