Agenda item

To receive and consider a report from the Head of Scrutiny and Member Development presenting evidence in line with Session 1 of the Board’s Inquiry into the impact of population growth on children's services in Leeds.

The Head of Scrutiny and Member Development submitted a report which introduced the evidence to be considered as part of the first formal session of the Board’s Inquiry into the impact of population growth on children’s services in Leeds.

The following organisations submitted information and evidence for the Board’s consideration;

• Office for National Statistics;
• Local Government Association;
• School of Geography, University of Leeds;
• Education Leeds on behalf of Children’s Services; and
• Leeds City Council, Business Transformation Team.

The following information was also provided;

• Agreed terms of reference - The impact of population growth on children’s services in Leeds;
• Audit Commission briefing - ‘Is there something I should know?’; and
• City and County of Swansea – ‘Everybody Counts!’ Scrutiny Report.

Representatives from a number of external organisations attended the meeting as follows;

-  Guy Goodwin - Director, Population, Health and Regional Analysis, Office for National Statistics;

-  Professor Tim Allen - Programme Director: Analysis and Research, Local Government Association; and

-  Peter Boden - Centre for Spatial Analysis and Policy, School of Geography, University of Leeds.

In addition, the following officers attended the meeting and responded to Members’ questions and comments;

-  Jackie Green, Director of Strategic Planning, Education Leeds;

-  George Turnbull, Head of Service – School Organisation, Education Leeds; and

-  ArfanHanif, Head of Strategy, Business Transformation Team.

The evidence which had been submitted was introduced and presented to the Board as follows:

Guy Goodwin, Office for National Statistics

• The Office for National Statistics (ONS) employed a team of demographic experts focussing on a range of scenarios and uncertainties – it was reported that population estimates could be rolled forward years into the future.
• The reasons for population growth were due to a range of factors including:

-  International migration

-  Increases in natural growth associated with fertility rates.

Questions and comments were invited as follows:

• Concern about the impact of population growth on primary school places.
• The need to undertake work at a local level, e.g. exploring uncertainties around fertility rates.
• Using birth data to identify patterns at a national level.
• Increase in young mums, although some variances dependant on area.
• Challenges keeping track of specific groups.

Peter Boden, University of Leeds

• The need to develop local authority projections, particularly in terms of pupil numbers and the implications arising from this.

Questions and comments were invited as follows:

• Whether projections had a built in margin of error.  It was advised that there was error in all methods used.

Professor Tim Allen, Local Government Association (LGA)

• Challenges in terms of migration and development of the e-borders system.
• Fertility rates highest since the late 1970’s – some areas of Leeds experiencing rapid growth. Likelihood of characteristics to be explored.
• National Insurance registrations lower than average – indication that migration had slowed.
• Pressure on school places not unique to Leeds – difficulty tracking movement in and out of the area.

Questions and comments were invited as follows:

• Identifying housing and development trends, e.g. some areas with high levels of rented accommodation, etc.
• Sharing good practice, e.g, Sheffield Children’s Profile Website.

Issues identified by officers:

• The importance of joined up working, particularly in relation to local developments.
• Challenges in terms of the lack of a complete dataset.
• School places and acknowledgement of acute pressure in certain parts of the city.
• The need to be more rigorous about local projections.

Members’ questions and comments were invited and in brief summary the main areas of discussion were:

• The effect of the economic crisis on school numbers, e.g. parents opting to send their children to state schools instead of being privately educated.
• School provision across the city, local pressures and challenges in terms of surplus place arrangements, maximum class size, etc.
• Concern that there was an over reliance on birth data and the need to collate data from other sources.
• Reported increase in the number of primary and secondary school appeals.

• The need to develop a multi-agency approach and the role of technology.

The Chair thanked officers and external representatives for their attendance at the meeting.

RESOLVED – That the issues raised at the first session of the Inquiry, be noted.

(Mrs Knights declared a personal interest in this item in her capacity as Chair of Governors at Little London Primary School).

(Councillor Renshaw declared a personal interest in this item in her capacity as Governor at Rodillian High School, Seven Hills Primary and East Ardsley Primary).

(Councillor Renshaw left the meeting at 11.54 am, Councillor E Taylor at 12.15 pm, Mr Wanyonyi at 12.40 pm, Ms Morris-Boam at 12.43 pm and Councillors Driver, R F Feldman and Selby at 12.53 pm during the consideration of this item).