Agenda item

DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF PUPIL NUMBERS

To consider a report by the Chief Executive Education Leeds which provides information on demographic trends, including births and new arrivals. The report also provides future projections of primary and secondary populations and changes to school provision

 

(Report attached)

Minutes:

Members considered a report by the Chief Executive Education Leeds which

Provided the annual update of the demographic picture in Leeds

 

Introducing the report Ms L Savage said that the birth rate had been rapidly increasing in Leeds for some years. From a low point of 7,600 births in 2000, the latest birth data showed 10,200 children born in the year to September 2010.

 

It was reported that in order to meet the rising demand for school places, 560 additional reception places had been created since 2009, and to continue to ensure one place for every child born city wide, the local admission authority would need to create on average 300 to 400 new reception places every year, equivalent to 10 -13 new one form entry primary schools.

 

Ms Savage said that whilst the smallest year 7 cohorts would be entering secondary school in September 2011 and 2012, the numbers would then begin to rise rapidly.  There was very little flexibility in the secondary sector, particularly in the south and east of the City.  As the 10,200 children reach reception age in 2014, the local admission authority would also be facing a shortage of secondary places in some areas of the City.  Planning for these larger numbers was underway, however the magnitude of birth rate increase was the equivalent to two new secondary schools each year.  Clearly there would be a number of expansion plans required in certain areas, prior to reaching the point of new schools. However the statutory requirement to hold competitions for any new school proposal, sets out a timetable which means that potential sites would need to be identified sooner rather than later.

 

It was reported that as the extent of provision required increases and options for expansion of the existing estate are minimal, there was a need to become more creative and extend the range of potential solutions. New sites would  be essential to the delivery of the ongoing need, and the potential for use of other council owned land and assets was being assessed. Community Centres, Libraries and office spaces were being evaluated, though this work was in its infancy. There were significant cost and legal implications to model. The option of renting accommodation was also being considered.

 

Options which could be realised for 2012 include:

 

·  Expansions

 

·  Split site primary schools – requires sites to be relatively closely located as legally one school can only have one admissions point for each phase

 

·  Creation of 4-19 schools – this could be by changing the upper age limit of a primary or the lower age limit of a secondary. Consideration of how to build on existing expertise in the new phase would be key.

 

Ms Savage said that if seeking to open a new school, the authority must hold a competition, and cannot simply open a community school. The statutory process involved consulting on a specification, inviting and evaluating bids, and making a final decision on who should run the school. Therefore to establish places for 2013 the process would need to start by spring 2011.

 

It was suggested that increased consideration of small inner city schools and larger three form entry schools would need to be given. Free Schools, which are outside of local authority control, would need to be factored into strategic planning. Some schools may offer limited permanent expansion opportunities, but be able to accommodate a bulge year, possibly until a longer term solution could be implemented. Whilst this could mean preference patterns in later years may be distorted by higher numbers of siblings gaining priority, it could offer some flexibility in areas where the birth rate fluctuates more.

 

Commenting on the potential use of other council owned sites as extensions to existing school sites i.e. Community Centres and Libraries, Mr Madeley expressed concern suggesting that such buildings were not an appropriate environment for school activities.

 

Mr Forbes said the lack of school places was a serious problem and was a consequence of a  legacy of failure to plan. Many areas of the city where demand was high were in the inner city, deprived areas where levels of unemployment were high. There was a possibility that free schools could become established in these areas utilising office blocks and former Mill sites.

Appropriate legislation required putting in place to ensure the suitability of buildings for school use.

 

In drawing the debate to a conclusion the Chair that is was his opinion that quality of provision should be sacrificed due to the urgency of the capacity issues. It was also important that a two tier system should not be created, high capacity within the inner city while the outer areas remained relatively untouched

 

RESOLVED

 

(i)  That the contents of the report be noted including:

 

·  The significant ongoing need for additional reception place

 

·  Significantly increasing year seven cohorts entering secondary school from 2013

 

(ii)  To receive a Consultation Paper on future proposals at the   appropriate time

Supporting documents: